Summarizing Russia's energy embargo, West's sanctions, and when Ukraine will take back its Eastern regions

Russia: Embargo

• Would include full or complete export ban of ban of oil and gas to NATO members and NATO partners

• Other countries that could join Russia’s embargo: Kazakhstan (probability 90%), Azerbaijan (probability 10%)

• Other products affected could be metals, minerals, and chemicals (already an ammonia nitrate ban)

• Could be full trade embargo (no exports and no imports of anything)

USA: Europe’s natural gas-station

• Europe increases LNG imports from USA and Qatar and gets rerouted LNG intended for Japan, as it’s been doing

• USA would become Europe’s “natural gas-station with nukes”

• This will put pressure on American natural gas prices, number 1

• Number 2, it could not replace all of the lost Russia gas

• Number 3, American hawks will need to think of a new nickname for Russia

Ukraine: Drones

• In 2022, will do a Nagorno-Karabakh War to get back its eastern regions (sans Crimea of course). Will succeed and very many Western reporters will be there to talk about the bravery and accomplishments of the Ukrainian military

• Victoria Nuland will be in Donetsk handing out sandwiches to the conquerors of the battles of Heraclea and Asculum

• Daniel Fried will buy everyone a drink at his favorite watering hall

Russia: Suffocate

• At a minimum, expect unending economic pressure on Ukraine

West: Sanctions

• Could confiscate all overseas assets of Abramovitch, Deripaska, Rotenbergs etc.

• Russians will yawn at this

• All Western assets in Russia would be subject to reciprocal confiscation

NATO expansion: Dead for 10 years

• At a minimum, NATO and EU expansion are dead for 10 years

• At a maximum, NATO splits up

Russia: Could it develop without West?

• Big yes

Winter heating in Berlin and London:

• Expensive and hard to come by

The odds that an American or British military plane or ship is destroyed by Russia in the next 24 months for encroaching Russia’s territory, possibly near Crimea or the Kuriles:

• 50%

On the other hand:

• This article makes a case for Russia trying to achieve a military solution in Ukraine

• In my opinion, if Russia goes in that direction it will be preceded by an energy embargo

Energy embargo is *the play* for Russia. The *military-technical* play. Could be used alone or in tandem, but it is the play.